Hugo's Food Club Betting System

 One of my safeties hit yesterday, for a 28:10 payout.

Nice!

New bets below, no time for my usual explanation. It's 0:30 over here, and I need to get up and start driving to the airport at 4:30. :(

Current Bets
Round	Bet Info	Amount	Odds	Winnings
6643	Lagoon: Admiral Blackbeard Hidden Cove: Federismo Corvallio	7488 NP	16:1	119808 NP
6643	Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid Hidden Cove: Federismo Corvallio Harpoon Harry's: Buck Cutlass	7488 NP	8:1	59904 NP
6643	Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid Hidden Cove: Federismo Corvallio Harpoon Harry's: Ned the Skipper	7488 NP	8:1	59904 NP
6643	Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid Hidden Cove: Captain Crossblades	7488 NP	14:1	104832 NP
6643	Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid Treasure Island: Sir Edmund Ogletree Hidden Cove: Federismo Corvallio	7488 NP	12:1	89856 NP
6643	Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid Treasure Island: Lucky McKyriggan Hidden Cove: Federismo Corvallio	7488 NP	20:1	149760 NP
6643	Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid Treasure Island: Franchisco Corvallio Hidden Cove: Federismo Corvallio	7488 NP	12:1	89856 NP
6643	Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid Treasure Island: Ol' Stripey Hidden Cove: Federismo Corvallio	7488 NP	20:1	149760 NP
6643	Lagoon: Young Sproggie Hidden Cove: Federismo Corvallio	7488 NP	8:1	59904 NP
6643	Lagoon: The Tailhook Kid Hidden Cove: Stuff-A-Roo	7488 NP	20:1	149760 NP
Total Possible Winnings				1033344 NP

Odds may change over the day. The listed odds are what they were at the time I updated the page.

Don't like my bets? Try someone else's.
A lot of people publish their bets and/or guides similar likes these. Most of them follow different strategies, and those that have a similar strategy still often make different choices.
Morris has compiled a list of Food Club bettor pages. So if you want to try someone else's bets, that page should be your first stop.

Some other Food Club related links:
Food Club main page
Revenge's Food Club guide
Sirhatter's betting guide
Food Club Monthly Competition

My betting system

The bets I made are based on a method I started using in september 2010. This method has proved itself to be better than the method I used before, and lots better than my first attempts to outsmart the system.
Many thanks go to sirhatter. His betting guide has helped me make lots of neopoints, until I found a way to improve upon his method.
Without sirhatter, this guide would never have existed.

What odds to use?

The odds for the various pirates change throughout the day. Many people have different theories about the relevance of opening odds, movements, and closing odds.
My theory is that the opening odds are determined by the Neopets computer, based on their actual chances of winning, and that movements throughout the day are caused by players' actions: if a lot of players bet a pirate his odds go up; if almost noone includes him, his odds go down.
Since I consider the opening odds to best reflect the actual chances, these are the odds I always use when picking my bets.

Calculating value

The first step in my betting system is to calculate the value for each of the five arenas. The value is found by converting the listed odds to percentage values, adding those percentage values, and subtracting the total from 100%.
For example, suppose the pirates in an arena are listed as 2:1, 6:1, 8:1 and 13:1. Converting to percentages yields 50%, 16.67%, 12.5%, and 7.69%; a total of 86.86%.
The value of this arena is 13.14% (100% - 86.86%).

Choosing bets

The next step is to count the number of arenas with a positive value, since the bets to be made depend on the number of positive values.

If there are no arenas with a positive value:

In this case, I don't bet at all.
There are people who will bet, and some will even make nice wins. But in my experience, you'll lose more neopoints than you win in the long run, so the winning strategy is not to bet if no arenas have a positive value.

If there is one arena with a positive value:

In the positive value arena, find the pirate with the 2:1 odds. (There should always be exactly one). I will make ten bets (the maximum), all on this pirate + one other pirate.

Here's how to find the ten pirates to include in these bets are:

1. Start with the remaining arena with the highest value. (Since the remaining arenas have negative values, remember that -2.5% is higher then -14.8%!).
   Use all pirates from this arena, except those that have 13:1 odds. (The reason why I omit 13:1 pirates is that their real odds might be much worse. The Food Club never goes below 13:1, but the actual odds may be worse - and an actual win chance of (for instance) 25:1 with a payout of only 13:1 is terrible value. Sometimes, the strength and food adjustments of pirates indicate that it might be a "real" 13:1; in those cases, I do include the 13:1 pirate in these bets).
   
2. Repeat the previous step until you have exhausted the ten bets.
   

Note that you must include all pirates from at least one arena. If all the arenas with "high" negative value have one or two 13:1 pirates, then you must either use a different arena, or include the 13:1 pirates from one arena (check strength and food adjustment to find one that is at least close to a "real" 13:1).

If there are two arenas with a positive value:

Let's call the arenas with a positive value X and Y.
You place ten bets, as follows:

1. One bet on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from X combined with the 2:1 pirate from Y;
   
2. Zero or more safety bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from X combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Y;
   
3. Zero or more safety bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirate from Y combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from X;
   
4. All remaining bets are "booster bets" on three pirates: the two 2:1 pirates from X and Y plus one pirate from one of the three remaining arenas.
   The choice of the third pirate in the booster bets is similar to the choice for finding the second pirate in the section for one positive value above.
   One extra guideline is that the single 4:1 bet on the two 2:1 pirates may be replaced by a booster bet if at least one arena has all its pirates included in booster bets. To make this happen, I sometimes include a 13:1 pirate in my set of booster bets.
   

If there are three arenas with a positive value:

If one of the three arenas has a very small positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for two arenas with a positive value (using the two arenas with the highest values).
If all three arenas have at least a decent positive value, or if you decide to take a bit more risk (and maybe win a bit more), then you can play the full three arenas.
Let's call the arenas with a positive value X, Y, and Z.
You place ten bets, as follows:

1. Three bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Y, from X and Z, and from Y and Z;
   
2. One bet on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X, Y, and Z;
   
3. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Y combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Z;
   
4. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from X and Z combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from Y;
   
5. Zero or more safety bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from Y and Z combined with each of the 3:1 to 7:1 pirates from X;
   
6. All remaining bets (if there are any) are "booster bets" on four pirates: the three 2:1 pirates from X, Y, and Z, combined with one pirate from one of the two remaining arenas.
   The choice of the fourth pirate in the remaining bets is similar to the choice for finding the third pirate in the section for two positive values above. This also includes the option to replace the single 8:1 bets on the three 2:1 pirates with an extra booster bet if at least one arena has all its pirates included in booster bets.
   

If there are four arenas with a positive value:

This is extremely rare - and offers a very good chance to make lots of neopoints!

If two of the four arenas have an extremely small positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for two arenas with a positive value (using the two arenas with the highest values).
If one of the four arenas has smallish positive value, you can opt to use the strategy for three arenas with a positive value (using the three arenas with the highest values).
If all four arenas have a very high value (20% or better), you can choose to go "all in" on the 2:1 pirates from these arenas:

1. Four bets on three pirates: the 2:1 pirates from each possible combination of three of the positive value arenas;
   
2. Six bets on two pirates: the 2:1 pirates each possible combination of two of the positive value arenas.
   

If all five arenas have a positive value:

This is an extremely rare scenario. I have seen it happen - but only once or twice in more than a year of playing almost every day!
Anyway, if it does happen, then the method is similar to the four-arena scenario above.
There are two alternative strategies, though. The first one can be used if all five arenas have an extremely high value:

1. Five bets on four 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of four arenas).
   
2. Five bets on three 2:1 pirates (using every arena in three of these five bets, or using the highest value arenas more often).
   
3. Optionally, replace one of the five bets on three pirates with a five-way bet on all pirates.
   

The second one can be used if all five arenas have a moderately high value, and all of them are about as likely to upset (so no easy choice of which arenas to leave out when you want to fallback on the two-, three- or four-arena game):

1. Ten bets on three 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of three arenas).
   
2. Alternatively, make this ten bets on two 2:1 pirates (using every possible combination of two arenas).
   

Final note

I consider the above system as a guideline.
I usually end up betting according to this system, but I also always check strength and food adjustment of the pirates in each arena.
Sometimes I end up deviating from the method described above. In some cases, this has made me more money, or reduced my loss. In other cases, it has cost me money.

And remember, Food Club is a gambling game. No matter how smart your system, you will always have days, sometimes even weeks, where you win nothing. Don't worry, just keep on playing. My statistics (see below) prove that in the long run, I come out ahead.

Statistics

The tables below list my results. These reflect the bets I made since I started to use the method described above.

Daily breakdown of the last month
Round	Date	Result
6613	June 14, 2017	32:10 (+22)
6614	June 15, 2017	18:10 (+8)
6615	June 16, 2017	48:10 (+38)
6616	June 17, 2017	12:10 (+2)
6617	June 18, 2017	0:10 (-10)
6618	June 19, 2017	0:10 (-10)
6619	June 20, 2017	56:10 (+46)
6620	June 21, 2017	14:10 (+4)
6621	June 22, 2017	0:10 (-10)
6622	June 23, 2017	14:10 (+4)
6623	June 24, 2017	18:10 (+8)
6624	June 25, 2017	36:10 (+26)
6625	June 26, 2017	14:10 (+4)
6626	June 27, 2017	24:10 (+14)
6627	June 28, 2017	26:10 (+16)
6628	June 29, 2017	12:10 (+2)
6629	June 30, 2017	0:10 (-10)
6630	July 1, 2017	14:10 (+4)
6631	July 2, 2017	16:10 (+6)
6632	July 3, 2017	0:10 (-10)
6633	July 4, 2017	20:10 (+10)
6634	July 5, 2017	20:10 (+10)
6635	July 6, 2017	0:10 (-10)
6636	July 7, 2017	16:10 (+6)
6637	July 8, 2017	20:10 (+10)
6638	July 9, 2017	16:10 (+6)
6639	July 10, 2017	16:10 (+6)
6640	July 11, 2017	32:10 (+22)
6641	July 12, 2017	14:10 (+4)
6642	July 13, 2017	28:10 (+18)

Aggregated results per month
Month	Total results	Profit	Avg daily profit	Avg return
September, 2010	430:270	+160	+5,33	+59,3%
October, 2010	538:310	+228	+7,35	+73,5%
November, 2010	512:270	+242	+8,64	+89,6%
December, 2010	488:300	+188	+6,27	+62,7%
January, 2011	646:280	+366	+13,07	+130,7%
February, 2011	288:260	+28	+1,08	+10,8%
March, 2011	374:280	+94	+3,36	+33,6%
April, 2011	432:300	+132	+4,40	+44,0%
May, 2011	514:290	+224	+7,72	+77,2%
June, 2011	490:280	+210	+7,50	+75,0%
July, 2011	268:200	+68	+3,40	+34,0%
August, 2011	176:220	-44	-2,00	-20,0%
September, 2011	562:290	+272	+9,38	+93,8%
October, 2011	492:270	+222	+8,22	+82,2%
November, 2011	428:280	+148	+5,29	+52,9%
December, 2011	486:290	+196	+6,76	+67,6%
January, 2012	766:290	+476	+16,41	+164,1%
February, 2012	254:260	-6	-0,23	-2,3%
March, 2012	504:280	+224	+8,00	+80,0%
April, 2012	682:280	+402	+14,36	+143,6%
May, 2012	510:310	+200	+6,45	+64,5%
June, 2012	514:280	+234	+8,36	+83,6%
July, 2012	308:130	+178	+13,69	+136,9%
August, 2012	604:260	+344	+13,23	+132,3%
September, 2012	432:280	+152	+5,43	+54,3%
October, 2012	488:290	+198	+6,83	+68,3%
November, 2012	428:290	+138	+4,76	+47,6%
December, 2012	588:280	+308	+11,00	+110,0%
January, 2013	388:270	+118	+4,37	+43,7%
February, 2013	722:270	+452	+16,74	+167,4%
March, 2013	464:270	+194	+7,19	+71,9%
April, 2013	440:280	+160	+5,71	+57,1%
May, 2013	518:290	+228	+7,86	+78,6%
June, 2013	598:300	+298	+9,93	+99,3%
July, 2013	444:290	+154	+5,31	+53,1%
August, 2013	640:280	+360	+12,86	+128,6%
September, 2013	774:290	+484	+16,69	+166,9%
October, 2013	508:290	+218	+7,52	+75,2%
November, 2013	526:280	+246	+8,79	+87,9%
December, 2013	564:300	+264	+8,80	+88,0%
January, 2014	456:280	+176	+6,29	+62,9%
February, 2014	510:260	+250	+9,62	+96,2%
March, 2014	614:280	+334	+11,93	+119,3%
April, 2014	316:240	+76	+3,17	+31,7%
May, 2014	576:310	+266	+4,84	+85,8%
June, 2014	604:300	+304	+10,13	+101,3%
July, 2014	404:270	+134	+4,96	+49,6%
August, 2014	658:290	+368	+12,69	+126,9%
September, 2014	518:200	+318	+15,90	+159,0%
October, 2014	274:190	+84	+4,42	+44,2%
June, 2017	530:280	+250	+8,93	+89,3%
July, 2017	212:130	+82	+6,31	+63,1%
Overall totals	25380:14010	+11370	+8,12	+81,2%